Zimbabwe's Coming Civil War: A Cadmean Victory

Great Zimbabwe, the ruins near Masvingo where Zimbabwe draws its name from. Picture Credit: Great Zimbabwe University.

"Make us enemies of every people on earth, but save us from civil war" - Lucan: Bellum Civile, c. 48

I attended a discussion at Oxford University on reforming the security sector in Zimbabwe, and the general gist of the discussion led me to believe that "reform" was actually a euphemism for "weakening the security services." A respected academic no less, said to me, in confidence; "the problem in Zimbabwe is how to get arms of war to the general population." That's what he said to me.

Well, history is philosophy teaching by examples. The Security Sector Reform discussion I attended was held before the examples we now have of Syria, Yemen and Libya. What these examples have incontrovertibly shown us is that a civil war can only result in a Cadmean Victory - a victory purchased with one's own ruin.

The Most Potent Global Security Threat Of The Twenty First Century

The unthinkable is the logical conclusion of all the great powers' strategic manoeuvring. Picture Credit: Wonderful Engineering.  

The greatest global security threat of the 21st century is the United States of America's fear of losing its status as the world hegemony. From this fear precipitates actions - in the name of "strategic manoeuvring" - that have destabilized, to name only the latest places: Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Ukraine. Ukraine represents exactly the kind of overreach, on the United States' part, that may result in the unthinkable.

This is the top tier of global security threats, all other threats should be viewed through this prism. It is also not necessarily that America is evil, Thucydides writing in the 5th Century already showed that all pre-eminent powers will behave this way. The only difference now is that a war fought to maintain such a hegemony will be the last war.