ISIS May Yet Punch Way Above Its Weight

The Russian Su - 24 All Weather Bomber that was shot down by Turkey in Syria on 24 November 2015.

If the unthinkable - nuclear war - were to happen over Turkey's downing of a Russian bomber jet in Syria, then ISIS will have punched way above its weight in style. The fable that readily comes to mind in illustration, is the African folk tale: The Hare, the Elephant and the Hippopotamus. 

The True Condition of Air Safety In The Decade 2011 - 2021

EI - ETJ. The MetroJet Airbus A321 - 200 Aircraft that crashed over the Sinai Desert while operating as Flight 7K9268. Picture Credit: Al Arabiya English.

All governments are essentially cut from the same cloth. If the governments of Egypt and Russia can help it, they will pass off the recent MetroJet plane crash in the Sinai Desert as having been caused by a technical fault rather than by an act of terrorism. Egypt's concern will be its image and tourism industry, while Russia will not want ISIS to claim to have the capability of striking back at Russia at a time and place of its choosing. 

The French, British, German and Emirati governments are not taking any chances and have announced a ban on their flag carriers flying over the Sinai. There is an element of the Russia vs the West in the announcement of this precaution, but that element is not relevant to the subject of this post: the true condition of the air safety environment in this decade.

ISIS has claimed to have downed Flight 7K9268 using surface to air missiles but, this is not credible as ISIS does not have the missile systems to strike at aircraft at cruising altitudes. The danger to aircraft landing and taking off from North Africa is, however, very real as 20 000 Man Portable Air Defence Systems  (MANPADS) were looted during NATO's toppling of Colonel Gaddafi in 2011. So, the full stock of the fallout from that NATO misadventure is yet to be taken.

What is credible, at this stage, is that a bomb may have been placed on the Sharm el-Sheikh to St Petersburg flight before take off. I worked on the airside for the airline for a considerable time and know for a fact that the one thing that protects passengers is not so much the security screening equipment, but the people who man those systems. If a greater section of the population is disaffected, as all those who supported the Muslim Brotherhood are, you install the best security equipment in vain as there are ways to bypass it. Further danger will come when non state actors get access to air  defence systems more sophisticated than MANPADS.

The true condition of air safety, therefore, is that it is unravelling. What has largely caused this to happen is United States military adventurism and disregard for the cornerstone of international order that is non-intervention in the domestic affairs of sovereign states. United States actions have started, and will continue to create ungoverned spaces where non state actors will have missile systems capable of bringing down aircraft at previously unassailable heights. Of course, the transatlantic routes, the European airspaces and Asian airspaces will still be safe - for now.

Zimbabwe's Coming Civil War: A Cadmean Victory

Great Zimbabwe, the ruins near Masvingo where Zimbabwe draws its name from. Picture Credit: Great Zimbabwe University.

"Make us enemies of every people on earth, but save us from civil war" - Lucan: Bellum Civile, c. 48

I attended a discussion at Oxford University on reforming the security sector in Zimbabwe, and the general gist of the discussion led me to believe that "reform" was actually a euphemism for "weakening the security services." A respected academic no less, said to me, in confidence; "the problem in Zimbabwe is how to get arms of war to the general population." That's what he said to me.

Well, history is philosophy teaching by examples. The Security Sector Reform discussion I attended was held before the examples we now have of Syria, Yemen and Libya. What these examples have incontrovertibly shown us is that a civil war can only result in a Cadmean Victory - a victory purchased with one's own ruin.

The Most Potent Global Security Threat Of The Twenty First Century

The unthinkable is the logical conclusion of all the great powers' strategic manoeuvring. Picture Credit: Wonderful Engineering.  

The greatest global security threat of the 21st century is the United States of America's fear of losing its status as the world hegemony. From this fear precipitates actions - in the name of "strategic manoeuvring" - that have destabilized, to name only the latest places: Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Ukraine. Ukraine represents exactly the kind of overreach, on the United States' part, that may result in the unthinkable.

This is the top tier of global security threats, all other threats should be viewed through this prism. It is also not necessarily that America is evil, Thucydides writing in the 5th Century already showed that all pre-eminent powers will behave this way. The only difference now is that a war fought to maintain such a hegemony will be the last war.